Expected goals (xG) assigns every shot a probability of becoming a goal, based on factors like distance, angle and shot type. Adding those probabilities up shows how many goals a team's chances were worth, which is often a better guide to performance than the scoreline.
September 28, 2026 · 2 min read
Win, draw and loss probabilities always add up to 100%, and the favourite is rarely a certainty. A 49% favourite loses more often than it wins. Read the probabilities as a spread of outcomes, not as a single predicted result.
September 28, 2026 · 2 min read
The Poisson distribution turns a team's expected goals into the probability of scoring 0, 1, 2 or more goals. Combine two teams' distributions and you get a probability for every scoreline, and from those, the win, draw, loss, over/under and both-teams-to-score markets.
September 28, 2026 · 2 min read