Match Indicators
Win probabilities tell you who is favoured. Indicators describe the shape of the match: how open it is, how likely an upset is, whether a one-goal game is expected. Every one is explained in plain language on the match page.
Our rules
Only what we can compute
No pressing or player-tracking metrics, because that is not data we use. If it is not measured, it is not shown.
Hidden beats invented
When there is not enough data, an indicator disappears. We never fill the gap with a guess.
Checked against results
Probability indicators are saved before kickoff and graded afterwards. The table below fills in as matches finish.
What exists today
Live now
Computed for every match with a forecast.
Result openness
Upset risk
Goals environment
Margin tightness
Clean sheet odds
Tactical Misprice Alert
Shown as Model vs market: a disagreement, never presented as proof of an edge.
Match storyteller
Form, attack and defence
Consistency
Closest honest version
Measures something related to the idea, not the exact thing. The name says so.
Field Tilt Volatility (FTVI)
Across matches, from dangerous-attack share. Not minute-by-minute.
Switches on when the data is deep enough
Hidden for a team until there is enough history to say something meaningful.
xG Variance and Finisher Deviation (xG+)
Switches on once about 25 matches with xG exist per team.
Does it hold up?
For each probability indicator: what we said before kickoff, and how often it happened. If both numbers are close, the indicator is honest.
Tracking has just started. Results appear here once matches have finished and been graded.
Information only, not betting advice. Probabilities describe likelihood, not certainty. 18+.